Food and beverages: Falling into a dog in 2021, did it come in 2022?

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In the generalization of the trend of food and beverages in 2021, the crackered (good start), the snake waist (the middle of the middle), and the leopard tail (the end of the year). ), But the CSI 300 Index won slightly.

Of course, the overall stormy waves will be covered, so let’s segmented it first, and then talk about how to lay out this year.

01

Restart 2021

Let’s talk about the cousin first, the food and beverages as a whole, obviously the inflection point is “218” (February 18). But in terms of subdivision, the end points of the corders are different.

Most of the mass food and beverages, most of the debut in 2021, is the peak. The dairy sector represented by Yili and the condiments represented by Haitian are all around January 8th.

Casual food and beverages are not an industry itself, but a very many sub -field composition. Therefore, there is basically no overall logic, and the cordon has no regularity. Picking a few big saying, Juewei Food is “218”. In the early February of February, Dongpeng Beverage was listed in May this year. Under the effect of the new stock, it started to fall until July. It’s right. And like Yangyuan drinks and Chengde Lulu, the valuation is low, and the other is affected by the launch of a plant protein beverage in the US stocks. This year, it went well and started to adjust until September.

Two large sections with strong food and beverages, one is beer and the other is white wine. The end point of the beer’s cousin was around July. Although the “218” collapsed, it then launched a very strong rebound.

The interior of the liquor was differentiated, and Mao Wuyan’s “218” ended the cousin. Although there was a rebound in the back, there was no recovery of the “218” collapse. Fen Gui reluctantly receded the “218” high point and walked in July. Yanghe Jinshi Gujing welcomes several areas of the mouth of the mouth, and the wine is the same as Haitian Yili. However, because of the low valuation and the performance, the performance was very eye -catching. Instead, it hit a new high all the way.

“608” (June 8th) is a change in the atmosphere of liquor. After the liquor rose continuously on the same day, the first large -scale daily limit was ushered in. “722” (July 22) is a relatively complete change, mainly because the collapse of education stocks has triggered panic in the underlying logic of China’s business.

These two time points are also time points for food and beverages to officially enter the snake waist. Baijiu began to collapse, beer began to collapse, condiments and dairy products rebounded in April and May, and then continued to collapse. The snake waist time continued until “820” (August 20). On the same day, the Moutai low -end and low bottom out of Moutai due to the news of a market supervision bureau.

Subsequently, the food and beverages entered a low -level shock, until “924” (September 24) opened the leopard tail market. There are two iconic events on the tail of Leopard. One is the “923” (September 23) market rumors that Haitian raise prices, but it was not fermented until “924”. One is the temporary shareholders’ meeting of Moutai after the “924”. As a result, the price of mass food and beverage price increase and liquor price logic have been opened.

The overall Volkswagen food and beverage price lifting logic ends on November 4th. Subsequently, some competitive patterns are good, and there is no problem with the demand side. The demand side does not restore the price of price increase and is not smooth. Baijiu was shocked due to consumption tax in mid -October to mid -November due to consumption tax, and Moutai’s batch price plummeted. It was not until late November that the main line of logical logic of Moutai’s price increase was officially opened. In the last few days of the end of the year, liquor recovered due to the uncertainty of price increase.

This is the approximate market timeline of this year, so why does it go?

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

02

Step in a plunge

Food and beverages will come out this year. In general, there are the following reasons:

Passion for valuation, changes in patterns, cost injuries, epidemic disturbances.

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

Firstly

Panic

At the beginning of 2021, the valuation of food and beverages became very high. For example, Illi shares reached 42 times at the beginning of the year, the highest in the past 10 years.

And Yili is still the least exaggerated. Hai Tianwei industry has reached 112 times the beginning of the year. In the past, Haitian’s base was not high in the past, and Haitian basically maintained a growth rate of 20%. There are super explosive power, but the market is 112 times amazing valuation.

Then talk about Moutai, when “218”, Maotai reached 70 times.

Others will not be listed one by one. In short, the valuation of most food and beverage companies has reached an amazing point at the beginning of this year. A little negative incident, it is easy to trigger the panic of killing valuation. And just right, there are really many ghost stories this year, let’s talk about them one by one.

One is

Change of pattern

This piece of typical containment, cheese, cocktails, etc. Both cheese and cocktails are relatively small in China, but they are very good -growing industries. They each have representative companies Mi Kelan and Bairun. If the investor is impressed, how much Miao Kelan plummeted was the start of the investigation discipline in May. Although Miao Kelan has denied the authenticity of this minutes, it is undeniable that Miao Kelan has eaten early cheese to make cheese early cheese. The first starting dividend, now more competitors come in, and the industry will inevitably change in the short term.

Cocktails are also similar. Bairun ate a wave of cocktails from nightclubs to circulating channels, but it also reduced the entry threshold for cocktails. Bai Run accounts for 80%of the industry’s market share, but Bai Run is actually the scale of 2 billion, that is, the current industry is only 2.5-3 billion. This is either an industry that is not big. If it can be bigger, as the entry threshold is reduced, more competitors will be inevitable.

The changes in the pattern of condiments are more interesting. It is not only reflected in the changes in the influx of competitors, but also the impact of the rise of the new channel of community group purchase on the old distribution system. Basic condiments, like soy sauce, are even more impacted by community group purchase, while composite condiments are even more impacted by competitors. The main reason is that the latter’s production threshold is low, and consumers are weak.

Therefore, we can see that composite condiments have fallen the worst, and the sky is the decline of 60 and 70, and the basis of basic condiments 30 and 40. Miao Kelan Duo and Bairun’s decline in the year are not large, which are 2 points and 17 points, just starting from the highest, the retracement is huge. The unknown number is just this signs, it is no wonder that it is no wonder to kill the valuation.

The second is

Injury

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

Basically, most Volkswagen food and beverages are affected by the rise in raw materials. It is reflected in the reporting side that is not to increase income. Needless to say, condiments, such as yeast, mustard, frozen baking, etc. For example, Anjing, looking at the revenue end, the growth rate is good, but the growth rate of the profit end fluctuates greatly.

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

The third is

Epidemic disturbance

This includes not only the new crown epidemic, but also natural disasters, like a flood. Beer has weakened from July, mainly under the influence of these two factors, the demand for beer has weakened.

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

In terms of fundamental terms, the end of the year has come to the end of the year, and the ghost stories have not yet been seen, the main is most of the liquor, Ilimon cattle, etc. Their decline is mainly a panic of valuation, adding a little emotional impact (such as the collapse of overseas education stocks and common prosperity, which causes the market to believe that Moutai can no longer pay price increases according to business logic). When these factors show signs of disappearance, they ushered in a rebound, such as the liquor after “924”, and Illi after the interim.

Of course, liquor is not completely a fundamental ghost story at all. For example, Wuliangye, obviously Q3’s performance is lower than expected. The reasons for correction are mainly the problem of the above half of the year. The price system is very chaotic.

In short, this year’s food and beverages are under the panic of the valuation, superimposed various ghost stories, and a wave of deep bear markets. It reminds us that no matter how optimistic, the margin of valuation must be taken into account.

What do you think in 2022?

03

How to buy this year?

The first thing to point out is that although it is a wave of deep bear markets, the valuation of food and beverages is still not cheap, but it is better than the 21 -year start.

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

This is not the problem of food and beverage alone, but the problem of the entire A shares. At present, the current A -share is a bit of a pattern. The basic valuation is not cheap. It can be said that although A shares this year’s food and drinks, although most of the messy people, they only killed the reasonable valuation from the foam valuation to the reasonable valuation, and even some of them are still reasonable and expensive valuations.

Therefore, the fantasy of giving up the valuation of the valuation of the food and beverages in 2022 is unexpected, and it is a blessing without killing.

Under the current valuation,

First, we have to choose the fundamentals of next year, and the second must choose a longer -term certainty.

The former avoids the fundamental killing next year, and the latter is the only anchor that we can aim in the chaos in the chaos if the A -shares open the kill valuation.

According to this logic, let’s go all over the field of food and beverage.

Liquor

Most liquor obviously meets the second condition, but the first condition is difficult to say. Next year’s macro surface, the economic probability is under pressure, otherwise the central bank will not shift from the tightness at the beginning of the year to loose. A considerable part of high -end liquor and sub -high -end liquor are in corporate hospitality for economic activities, and the economic downturn will affect this amount. Inside, the secondary high -end is more affected, because the high -end is more inclined to give gifts, and the sub -high -end is more biased towards banquet. Even if the economy is down, it will generally not break the gift delivery needs immediately.

Therefore, from the perspective of steady, high -end will be better. The most defined in it is Maotai, because it basically does not need to worry about demand issues, and now its concern for it is whether it can raise prices.

Of course, it is also possible that the economy is not expected under a series of financial stimuli. This is to continue to track.

More

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

beer

The competition pattern of beer is very good, and the product structure upgrade is also a major trend. Next year, the epidemic is slow, the restaurant is restored, and the fundamental probability of beer is high. Therefore, beer meets the above two conditions. But under such valuations, reduce the expectations of yields.

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

Then

condiment

Essence

The mustard and yeast are also in line with the above two conditions. The focus on their attention is how elasticity will the profit end next year. In the second half of this year, they have already raised their prices. Considering their competitive pattern, the probability profit end will be reflected next year. But how big the space will be, depending on whether the raw material side will cooperate. Therefore, pay attention to the inflection point of the price of raw materials, and it may have a better intervention time in cooperation.

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

Soy sauce meets the second condition above. The first condition is not so certain. It needs to pay attention to the price lifting transmission situation of Haitian.

The second condition of composite condiments is met, but because of the low entry threshold, consumers are weak and weak, the pattern of individual companies is difficult to be tracked. The advantage is that this year’s decline is large enough, and the valuation has been killed. In the second half of this year, the competition pattern is slightly better. Companies like Haitian choose to withdraw from the hot pot bottom. However, it is difficult to say whether there is a turning point in performance next year, especially like Haidilao International, which is relatively large in Haidilao, we still have to see the recovery of the catering end. See if there is an inflection point in the price of raw materials next year, look at the recovery of the dining side.

Frozen products are almost this logic. Whether it is prefabricated, quick -frozen products, and freezing, it mainly depends on whether there is an inflection point on the raw material side, so as to provide greater profit end elasticity.

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

Dairy plate

In line with the above conditions, the first condition is because the net profit margin of dairy companies is low, and the cost and cost can easily lead to the elasticity of the profit end. In the case of next year, due to the Winter Olympics in the Q1 quarter, it is expected that the sales costs will be invested more, resulting in a not good net profit end. On the other hand, the price of raw milk is currently fluctuating at a high level and does not continue to rise. The current view of the industry is that the price of raw milk may decline in the second half of next year. Essence

Leisure foods and beverages basically each have their own advantages. It doesn’t make much sense to discuss the industry. The specific company analyzes it.

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

In addition, there are potential attention opportunities, Shunxin Agriculture and Yanjing Beer, and companies under the Beijing State -owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, to see if there is a chance of reform. Like Shunxin Agriculture has announced the peeling of real estate, it is hard to say whether it can find the pickup party.

食品饮料:2021年跌成狗,2022年否极泰来?

This is the general view of food and beverages, overall, reduce expectations as a whole.

Firstly