Furnishing home improvement can not save the shell

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Wen 丨 Xiaofeng said

In the turn of autumn and winter, the shell is closed. For many days, from Shanghai to Shenzhen, shells have been fermented.

Shells in the second quarter of 2021 showed that their operating income was 24.174 billion yuan, an increase of 20.02%year -on -year, a new low in the past five quarters, and its operating profit margin was 4.62%, a year -on -year decrease of 11.7 percentage points. The performance is under pressure, and it is transmitted to the capital market. The stock price is endless. As of October 18, Beijing time, the closing price of the shell -finding house was 22.02 US dollars per share, with a market value of 26.22 billion US dollars. The price of housing stocks in shells fell more than 70%, and the market value evaporated by more than 70 billion US dollars.

When the main business encountered a bottleneck, how to return to the growth orbit became a question that shell urgently needed to answer. According to observation network reports, people familiar with the shell revealed: “After reducing the financial business, shells will increase their home furnishing business in the future.”

The trillion -dollar market -scale home improvement industry is a track, and it is indeed suitable for large platforms to tell a new story cross -border. In the past few years, shells have bet in the field of home improvement and entered with the posture of subverters. This may also convey the determination to bet on the home improvement industry to the outside world.

However, can home improvement really become a new growth point for housing?

Copy shell

家装救不了贝壳

In July of this year, the shell “throwing” 8 billion yuan acquired 100%of the equity of Sandu Home Installation, and gorgeous entrance “shocked” the entire capital circle and home improvement industry. The Sandu Home Installation is a decoration company headquartered in Hangzhou. The official website shows that Santu Home Installation has brands such as “Sandu Home Institute, San Du Seiko, and San Du Jinyi Industrial Park”. The business has achieved full -area coverage of Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

This large merger and acquisition plan is also interpreted by the industry as a signal of the fully deployed real estate transaction downstream industry. In fact, shells have been quietly deploying emerging industries such as home improvement. As early as 2019, shells started to test the water home improvement field with the quilt brand. industry. In June 2020, Vanke withdrawn from Vanke Chain Home Decoration Co., Ltd. (referred to as “Wanlin”), which was taken to find a house by the shell to find a house.

With the merger of Wanchain, the layout of the house’s home improvement business has gradually surfaced. According to the Finance News Agency, there are currently three business lines in the owner of the nest. One is the shell precision, that is, the self -operated brand of the owned home, which is responsible for construction delivery; Wanchain is a whole -fed product, which is a well -equipped brand that is installed by the nest. In addition to Wanchain, the platform’s installation brand has Nangyu home improvement, and Nanyu home improvement is also a home improvement brand under the chain home.

By logging in to the Shell APP, we found that there is only home improvement business in Beijing, and the business layout of Wanlin Home and Nangyu Home Instyle is just in the Beijing market. The lack of business in Hangzhou may be related to the acquisition transaction of San Du Homeon in the first half of 2022.

From the perspective of business models, the bed home installation can basically be regarded as a one -stop self -operated decoration product with a heavy model. The business layout is mainly in Beijing. Its core products include a complete package and personalized half -package business. The APP and offline stores are Its customer acquisition means have no other home improvement brands and merchants in the current platform, and there are fewer service areas and service products.

Looking back at the development history of shells, it may be possible to “push up” the logic of the layout of the quilt home. Shells are the platform products that the chain home has more than 9,000 self -operated stores and more than 10,000 franchise stores, injecting the store and customer resources into and incubated by the more than 10,000 franchise stores. After the chain home “, when the user’s habit of developing the behavior of buying a house and renting a house, the shell will open a third -party merchant to settle in the shell to develop the platform into a traffic entrance in the real estate trading field.

The quilt home improvement is the copy and paste of the shell mode in the field of home improvement. In fact, this is also the development path that shells are good at, that is, through the launch of self -employed products or acquisition of home improvement companies to achieve the coverage of business in various regions, such as mergers and acquisitions of uniform home improvement and South China Yujia installation realizes the business coverage of Beijing, and the mergers and acquisitions of Saint -Metropolitan home improvement can be covered in East China and other East China regions, and eventually realize the national coverage of the business. When the business volume reaches a certain scale, injects the business of resource development platform, and finally builds a nest family into a traffic entrance.

From the “promotion” of the chain home to the shell, it can be done because it has accumulated nearly 20,000 offline stores for 20 years, and the bed family is currently only less than 10 stores in Beijing. Only can Sandu Home improvement “fight” a “shell” platform? According to the official website of San Dujia, it has formulated the “three -five plan”, that is, the number of stores opened in 2024 will reach 200, and the long triangle will be deeply cultivated in a direct store.

According to statistics from the China Architectural Decoration Association, the number of Chinese construction decoration industries in 2020 was 106,000. In other words, the quilt home installation must support a home improvement platform and enter the mainstream of the industry, and at least need to cover 10,000 home clothing companies or stores. If the number of stores in Shengdu Home Installation after 3 years, the shell will also need to acquire 49 Saint -Madam home improvements. According to the valuation of the Sandu home improvement of RMB 8 billion, the total cost will require 392 billion yuan. At present, the shell is currently the shell. The market value is less than 170 billion yuan.

Of course, the accounts must not be calculated, but it still reflects that except for the “mismatch” of the resource in the field of home improvement, 8 billion investment cannot support a home improvement platform. From the perspective of a strategic layout The role of the second, compared to the layout of the industry veteran players Qijiawang, may be more explained. Qijiawang was established in 2007. At first, the platform was a home improvement building material group purchase platform. When the size of the merchant and the user volume reached a certain order, Qijia.com transformed into a one -stop home improvement platform to provide users and installation companies with decoration and design design. , Third -party supervision and supply chain services, use digital technology to empower the installation enterprise to improve service quality and improve operating efficiency, and ultimately improve the user’s experience and the overall operating efficiency of the industry.

Similar to Qijia.com, shells are an Internet platform. The platform is good at traffic operation, integration of industry resources, and empowerment of digital technology. “Victoria’s Strike”, perhaps the purchase of offline stores one by one is the “path dependence” that shells are good at, but from the chain home to the shells have achieved “promotion”.

Self -operating business that is difficult to copy

家装救不了贝壳

Of course, you can say that shells can be used to achieve national layouts without acquiring 50 Saint -Metropolitan home improvements. It is upgraded from the line to a platform, such as the replication of Sandu home improvement or self -employed home improvement business. However, this ignores the complexity of the home improvement industry. The home improvement industry has always said that “big industries and small companies” have always said that it is difficult to run in the home improvement industry.

Why can the chain home be rolled out nationwide? The main reason is standardization. First of all, the house is a standardized product. Secondly, although the procedures for real estate transaction services are relatively complicated, it is not complicated in general, and it is still easy to standardize and copy the process. In other words, as long as the real estate agency has controlled the transformation and delivery service of customer acquisition, this store can basically open smoothly, and it can be copied to major and medium -sized cities across the country.

However, the home improvement industry is different. The home improvement is not a standardized product. It can also be said that the home improvement delivery is a service. Unlike real estate transaction services, the home improvement service cycle is longer, the service processes involve more complicated, participating in participation, participation More stakeholders and more complicated supply chains. These factors determine that home improvement brands are difficult to expand on a large scale. Even the head companies in the industry are mostly only regional leaders at present, and their business expansion radius is limited. For example, the core coverage area of ​​Sandu home improvement is only in East China and other East China regions in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai.

家装救不了贝壳

According to FastData data, the proportion of large-scale loading companies with a scale of over 100 million yuan in 2016-2020 increased from 12.8%to 18.6%, and the number of large-scale companies with a scale of more than 100 million yuan increased from 2280 to 4,000. However, there are still very few of more than 100,000 residential building decoration companies. The decoration companies with more than 1 billion revenue are rare and are absolutely the absolute regional leaders.

Pictures from Zhitong Finance

The decoration company must break through regional restrictions to achieve national expansion. In addition to the standardization and standardization of the service process, the most important thing is to realize the national layout of the supply chain system. Taking a hardcover as an example, the construction materials that need to be purchased are about 150 kinds of construction materials, which seem to have only 150 kinds of materials. Most home improvement companies will give priority to choosing a local supply chain, which is also one of the important reasons for home improvement companies to get out of the region.

Therefore, if the quilt home installation is to achieve the national layout, it is not enough to acquire one Sandu home improvement. It still needs to acquire decoration companies from the Northeast, North China, Northwest China, and other places. Another big problem. As an example, the listed decoration company East Yiji Sheng is an example. The company has 15 subsidiaries and 30 direct -operated branches. At present, there are more than 140 direct -operated stores, 67 franchisees and 128 franchise stores. The annual revenue scale is Between 3 billion and 4.5 billion, from the first half of 2019 to the first half of 2021, the net profit attributable to the Eastern Eastern Eight quarterly was negative, of which the net profit margin in the first quarter of 2021 was -44.5%. It is -6.47%.

Pictures from Oriental Wealth

According to Leju Finance and Economics, in 2020, the size of the Sandu Home Institute was 4. billion yuan, and the revenue was 3.3 billion yuan. Compared with the annual revenue of Dongyi Risheng, if the shell acquisition of Saint Capital adopts a radical expansion strategy without doing well in financial management, its degree of losses may be more serious than Dong Yisheng.

Be a “subverter” or a service

Why should the shell be involved in home improvement? Some analysis articles quoted Zuo Hui, the founder of Shell Finding House, believed that finding houses to find houses should be difficult and correct, and believe that home improvement is one of the traditional industries that need the Internet to subvert and reshape. Shells have also launched some measures in the field of home improvement. For example, on September 6, the bedside home launched a “ten -hearted influence” commitment to provide users with one -stop standardized home improvement services and “declared war” to home improvement.

From the scale and volume of the current home furnishings, it is too early to talk about subversion. From the perspective of business models and technological innovation, shells have not provided a better story to the industry. In fact, from 2015, the “Internet home improvement Yuanyuan Yuan At the beginning of the “year”, there are countless people who talk about the disruptive. When the tide retreats, only the number of services for the industry’s empowerment industry will be left. The data shows that from 2016 to 2018, 113 Internet home improvement companies have Overception, the closure rate of the decoration company that encountered the “Black Swan” in 2020 was even as high as 20%.

In fact, the home improvement industry has developed for so many years, and countless companies have come in or left in a subversive posture, but there are still a lot of pain points that have not been resolved. Return to reason under fanaticism. I am afraid that this industry is really lacking is not a subverter, but also a service person.

As the founder of Qijia.com, Deng Huajin said, one of the core values ​​of the Internet home improvement platform is to carry out technical empowerment to the majority of decoration companies. Since 2017, Qijia.com has supported the transformation and upgrading of platform merchants into one of the core strategies, and strengthened the role of merchant transformation assistants and consultants. The gameplay of these vertical players may be more enlightened to later enrolled.

From the perspective of industry servicers, as an Internet platform like Qijiawang, if the shell is from the perspective of digitalization and supply chain integration, it may be able to achieve a faster scale expansion than mergers and acquisitions one by one, and then on the platform on the platform Under the network effect, the integration of offline stores has been performed to achieve the coordinated development with the real estate intermediary platform.

However, this may be too low in the scale of the shell in terms of revenue. For the main business of the gradual stall, it still cannot fill the valuation of tens of billions of dollars in the evaporation.

However, the “acceleration” of the Internet has always been unable to install this “slow” industry at home, and the single giant of tens of billions of revenue has not yet been established in the field of decoration companies. For the shells that are still hesitant at home, I am afraid that home improvement is not really a “good medicine” that is easy to swallow.